Accurate rainfall forecasting, particularly for extreme events, remains a significant challenge in climatology and the Earth system. This paper presents novel physics-informed Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) combined with extreme-value analysis techniques to improve gauge-station rainfall predictions across Thailand. The model leverages a graph-structured representation of gauge stations to capture complex spatiotemporal patterns, and it offers explainability through teleconnections. We preprocess relevant climate indices that potentially influence regional rainfall. The proposed Graph Attention Network with Long Short-Term Memory (Attention-LSTM) applies the attention mechanism using initial edge features derived from simple orographic-precipitation physics formulation. The embeddings are subsequently processed by LSTM layers. To address extremes, we perform Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) mapping using the novel Spatial Season-aware Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) method, which overcomes limitations of traditional machine-learning models. Experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms well-established baselines across most regions, including areas prone to extremes, and remains strongly competitive with the state of the art. Compared with the operational forecasting system SEAS5, our real-world application improves extreme-event prediction and offers a practical enhancement to produce high-resolution maps that support decision-making in long-term water management.

The great rivers of Bangladesh, arteries of commerce and sustenance, are also agents of relentless destruction. Each year, they swallow whole villages and vast tracts of farmland, erasing communities from the map and displacing thousands of families. To track this slow-motion catastrophe has, until now, been a Herculean task for human analysts. Here we show how a powerful general-purpose vision model, the Segment Anything Model (SAM), can be adapted to this task with remarkable precision. To do this, we assembled a new dataset - a digital chronicle of loss compiled from historical Google Earth imagery of Bangladesh's most vulnerable regions, including Mokterer Char Union, Kedarpur Union, Balchipara village, and Chowhali Upazila, from 2003 to 2025. Crucially, this dataset is the first to include manually annotated data on the settlements that have vanished beneath the water. Our method first uses a simple color-channel analysis to provide a rough segmentation of land and water, and then fine-tunes SAM's mask decoder to recognize the subtle signatures of riverbank erosion. The resulting model demonstrates a keen eye for this destructive process, achieving a mean Intersection over Union of 86.30% and a Dice score of 92.60% - a performance that significantly surpasses traditional methods and off-the-shelf deep learning models. This work delivers three key contributions: the first annotated dataset of disappeared settlements in Bangladesh due to river erosion; a specialized AI model fine-tuned for this critical task; and a method for quantifying land loss with compelling visual evidence. Together, these tools provide a powerful new lens through which policymakers and disaster management agencies can monitor erosion, anticipate its trajectory, and ultimately protect the vulnerable communities in its path.

The wide acceptance of large language models (LLMs) has unlocked new applications and social risks. Popular countermeasures aim at detecting misinformation, usually involve domain specific models trained to recognize the relevance of any information. Instead of evaluating the validity of the information, we propose to investigate LLM generated text from the perspective of trust. In this study, we define trust as the ability to know if an input text was generated by a LLM or a human. To do so, we design SPOT, an efficient method, that classifies the source of any, standalone, text input based on originality score. This score is derived from the prediction of a given LLM to detect other LLMs. We empirically demonstrate the robustness of the method to the architecture, training data, evaluation data, task and compression of modern LLMs.